Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-02-23 25.755331 28.457914 31.525029 35.310238 39.924029 45.459815 52.758957
2025-03-02 21.871265 25.308509 29.545602 35.316196 43.260587 54.328279 72.052681
2025-03-09 19.176594 22.914378 27.803508 34.984502 45.923936 63.418913 97.923471
2025-03-16 17.217006 21.066722 26.333377 34.548156 48.189229 73.016078 134.551385
2025-03-23 15.749062 19.631573 25.136542 34.162511 50.331619 83.659573 191.023436
2025-03-30 14.628108 18.517026 24.199684 33.931188 52.620497 96.257387 290.556528
2025-04-06 13.578359 17.378508 23.053955 33.093162 53.446271 106.238724 439.043948
2025-04-13 13.203398 17.179666 23.318139 34.740972 60.057281 139.625614 1534.484535
2025-04-20 12.509120 16.426284 22.587365 34.394180 62.022571 161.041146 11818.466742
2025-04-27 12.003087 15.915362 22.192458 34.613554 65.530830 196.310719 NaN
2025-05-04 11.577949 15.493051 21.895187 34.966763 69.619684 247.240081 NaN
2025-05-11 11.158570 15.045815 21.504239 35.048272 73.026978 309.980897 NaN
2025-05-18 10.683880 14.484031 20.870178 34.526626 74.479455 369.759826 NaN
2025-05-25 10.325892 14.090522 20.505189 34.556855 77.951559 490.301787 NaN
2025-06-01 9.956814 13.655575 20.026116 34.248488 80.153485 637.699878 NaN
2025-06-08 9.606265 13.231345 19.532526 33.832722 81.839706 839.942243 NaN
2025-06-15 9.289480 12.846727 19.083901 33.462829 83.637826 1172.943056 NaN
2025-06-22 9.013696 12.517138 18.715284 33.240556 86.077905 1885.389566 NaN
2025-06-29 8.694218 12.097670 18.145113 32.431225 85.488853 2510.329244 NaN
2025-07-06 8.646596 12.142359 18.479528 34.023562 97.934039 NaN NaN
2025-07-13 8.409629 11.845244 18.114773 33.688777 100.067708 NaN NaN
2025-07-20 8.239215 11.656944 17.955361 33.900712 105.754532 NaN NaN
2025-07-27 8.090260 11.499285 17.846483 34.241807 112.815608 NaN NaN